When I look at constituencies I first want to know the demographic balance in the seat. Are there particular demographic groups which dominate? If so, how do they vote? And where else are they found?

So, below is the demographic profile of Richmond Park:


The first obvious take is that two colours dominate; pink and olive. These demographic groups account for around three-quarters of all voters. This is a very unusual demographic balance. Typically seats contain a wider range of demographic groups and whilst some groups might be larger than others they aren’t necessarily disproportionately so. This is not the case in Richmond Park. Clearly if you’re going to win there you’ll need to win those two groups. So, who or what are they?

First, the pink demographics are stable, wealthy over 40s in professional occupations. Detached homes; social grade As; incomes well over national average; three holidays a year. You get the picture. They’re also pretty enthusiastically green. Geographically they’re a London outer ring demographic but also found in places like Cardiff and Altrincham. Politically they turn out well in elections and vote for the Tories or Lib Dems.

Second, the olive demographics are younger professionals in high-end privately rented accommodation. They are ostensibly younger versions of the pinks in earlier phases of their professional lives. Geographically they are again found in outer London but also in places like Cardiff, Bristol, Brighton, Cambridge, Manchester Withington, etc. Politically they turn out reasonably well and move around between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens. These are the new members of the Labour party as well.

So, where else are the pinks and olives found? Below are the 25 seats with the highest concentrations of pinks (older, wealthy professionals), together with the % of the electorate:

Kensington 33.6
Richmond Park 31.2
Esher and Walton 30.2
Finchley and Golders Green 27.7
Cities of London and Westminster 22.3
Chesham and Amersham 22.1
Chelsea and Fulham 22.0
Altrincham and Sale West 21.7
Beaconsfield 21.6
Epsom and Ewell 19.7
Enfield Southgate 19.5
Cardiff North 19.0
Twickenham 18.6
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner 17.6
Hertsmere 17.5
Chipping Barnet 17.1
Wimbledon 16.8
St Albans 16.7
Cardiff Central 16.5
Tatton 16.5
Mole Valley 16.5
Hitchin and Harpenden 16.1
Bromley and Chislehurst 15.8
Epping Forest 15.5
Westminster North 15.3

Below is a list of the 25 seats with highest proportions of olive demographics (younger professionals):

Wimbledon 50.4
Twickenham 45.2
Richmond Park 45.1
Ealing Central and Acton 38.7
Finchley and Golders Green 36.6
Brentford and Isleworth 32.8
Enfield Southgate 32.1
Putney 31.8
Tooting 30.4
Sutton and Cheam 29.4
Hornsey and Wood Green 29.3
Kingston and Surbiton 28.3
Dulwich and West Norwood 26.6
Battersea 26.1
Lewisham West and Penge 25.2
Chipping Barnet 23.9
Harrow West 23.6
Lewisham East 23.5
Cambridge 22.9
Bromley and Chislehurst 22.6
Ealing Southall 22.2
Chelsea and Fulham 21.8
Manchester Withington 21.7
Beckenham 21.4
Greenwich and Woolwich 20.5

Below is the combined list. That is, the 25 seats with the highest proportions of the pinks and olives combined. I hope you can see that Richmond Park is almost unique in its demographic composition, with only six seats in the country having over half of its electorate from these groups.

Richmond Park 76.3
Wimbledon 67.2
Finchley and Golders Green 64.4
Twickenham 63.8
Ealing Central and Acton 52.8
Enfield Southgate 51.6
Chelsea and Fulham 43.8
Hornsey and Wood Green 43.2
Brentford and Isleworth 43.0
Kensington 42.1
Putney 41.8
Chipping Barnet 41.0
Bromley and Chislehurst 38.5
Sutton and Cheam 37.5
Esher and Walton 37.5
Cities of London and Westminst 37.4
Beckenham 36.7
Dulwich and West Norwood 35.6
Kingston and Surbiton 35.6
Tooting 35.6
St Albans 32.6
Cambridge 31.9
Hendon 30.7
Manchester Withington 30.0
Altrincham and Sale West 29.6

One final thing. Both pinks and olives were amongst the strongest Remain voters of all demographic groups in the recent EU referendum.